The “experts” were woefully and completely wrong again. Maybe LeBron can salvage the series and win in 7, but that now looks highly unlikely unless the Magic royally choke.
I’ve always thought the Cavs were very overrated and the Magic were underrated. I told several people before the playoffs began that the Cavs would not win it all and that the Magic were to be feared. I never wrote about it, so that claim may seem like a little revisionist history.
I always thought the Cavs were overrated because they are good at what they do, but they are not the best. Let me qualify that. The Cavs are very good at beating the teams they are supposed to beat, which means they are a consistently good team. And they are proof that the top few teams in the league are worlds apart from the rest. The Cavs routinely annihilated the opposing team, which had Hollinger jumping up and down in his seat because his favorite PER player (LeBron) would win the championship and legitimize both his PER statistics and his Power Rankings statistics at the same time. Talk about a savior. But, Hollinger was blinded by his own statistical ratings to the fact that the Cavs really don’t match up well against any of the top threats in the league. Under the pretty #1 seed, the Cavs don’t really have much going for them. They have LeBron, but their front line is dreadful. LeBron is amazing, but time and time again, the league has shown that this is a team game, not an individual game. Varejao is good when he plays against a mediocre front line. But he’s a liability on the offensive end and his defensive effort or rebounding does not make up for this liability, especially against the top teams in the league. And Zydrunas… he’s just too slow.
The Magic on the other hand, were highly underrated going into the playoffs. If they advance to the finals, they will probably be written off yet again. Hollinger already wrote them off against the Nuggets in what he said would be a nightmare matchup for the Magic. I don’t agree. There are two things the experts don’t like about the Magic. One, they don’t think Dwight Howard is a legitimate offensive threat. And two, the Magic live and die by the three. Both claims are somewhat true, but also somewhat false. Dwight Howard is not an on the ball offensive threat when he’s guarded by someone who can match his strength. We saw this in the Boston series with Perkins. But when the man guarding him is Varejao, Zydrunas, or Wallace, he can pretty much dominate with brute strength. We saw this in the first half and OT of Game 4. Also, it’s important to note that Howard is always a threat to get the offensive board and put back a slam. The second point, that the Magic live and die by the three, is not entirely true either. When I think of a team that lives and dies by the three, I think of the Warriors. The Magic do take a very high proportion of their shot from behind the arc, but it is the presence of an inside force that gives them good opportunities behind the arc and also gives them another avenue of attack. The Warriors just run and gun. They don’t have a legitimate alternate avenue for offense. Despite the huge percentage of shots that go up as three pointers, the experts don’t recognize that the Magic really have a balanced offensive arsenal. We saw this in OT of Game 4 where Howard scored 10 points or so.
Like I said, the Cavs can still win the series. But if anything, this series has just shown again how much the “experts” really know.
Disclaimer: I am definitely not presuming to be an expert. I happened to be right about this series, but I have also been wrong about other things, like how good the Nuggets would become with Billups. But I don’t spend my life researching these things. You’d think people who do this for a living would have a better clue. But they don’t. On the other hand, Sir Charles Barkley was absolutely correct when he pointed out the matchup problems for the Cavs. And it seems he is one person who usually knows what he is talking about.